Posts Tagged ‘economics’

Why originality fails in the marketplace

Thursday, January 17th, 2008

From the perspective of a game designer, people are stupid. Okay, that can be a perspective anyone can have, but the reason game designers have is that people aren’t buying the games they’re asking for.

Doesn’t make sense at all, does it? As a hardcore gamer (also casual when my Free Time Metertm is low), I’m deep into the gaming scene - forums, news feeds, modding, and so on. While in these trenches (actually they’re pretty comfy chairs) it’s obvious that originality is lacking and every gamer knows it. We want more original titles! But hey, don’t pay attention to the sales figures on that last Madden game or MMO expansion - we really don’t like endless franchises (pay no attention to that Final Fantasy XIII).

Yet every time an excellent original title comes out, it falls short of even the most conservative financial expectations. Okami, Rez and Psychonauts are just a few of the many original titles that hit huge critical acclaim but fell flat on store shelves. Why?

It seems there’s a pattern to all this. I’m probably wrong, but I wouldn’t know that until you said something (there’s a comment section for a reason eh). Anyway, it appears that each original yet unsuccessful title had a vague objective (or many diverse objectives) like attack monster in a variety of unfamiliar ways or explore this illogical realm and so on. On the other hand, all the successful titles were very clear - win football games or kill anything that moves or conquer bases by building your own and so on.

So could it be that the reason original games are failing in the market is because we don’t understand what they’re about in the 5 seconds we take to consider it? This isn’t too far fetched, considering the fact that the average American has the attention span of the average goldfish (goldfish are shiny). If we don’t understand something at a glance, well, forget about it. Literally.

But is this really surprising? We’re overloaded with massive amounts of information every hour, so in order to continue functioning well enough to do our jobs (studying or writing memos, whatever) we have to be damn good at filtering out the noise in the signal. There’s already a ton of stuff about the attention economy and whatnot, so this certainly isn’t new. What is new is how we’re coping with it all - we still haven’t quite figured that out yet. We’re still developing the necessary tools to get us back to pre-internet info loads.

So how do we design around this? In games, the way I would do it is to present a very clear objective, but while you’re playing the game, slowly introduce a new and (hopefully) interesting gameplay mechanic, without ever confusing the player about what the goal is. If you try to slap the player with a new concept from moment they look at the cover, forget about it. Alternatively, you could take the Katamari approach and have the only objective be so incredibly simple that it could be translated to the potential player in so few words or pictures.

This could also be applied to anything else really. You just have to make sure your design is a natural extension of what they already know in order to keep people’s attention - grabbing it is easy. Even better though, you could stick to simple designs. (But oh wait you have to have real talent to do that, so it’s an unlikely course of action for most designers, unfortunately.) There’s a lot of hubbub regarding simplicity in everyday designs (software, internet and other types of interfaces, other products or even architecture and so on) and how we should probably scale back the features to the point where the purpose of the object is pronounced so clearly that the user wouldn’t have to think twice about it. Because they won’t even if we want them to.

More is Less

Thursday, October 5th, 2006

As the US grows to 300 million this month, businessmen are praising the “accomplishment” and foaming at the mouth over the opportunities that a larger population offers. (Of course there are exceptions but alas, they don’t own businesses.) While these mindless fools are seeking growth, everyone else on the street are choking on their pollution, running out of drinkable water, starving local economies by giving their wallets to foreign companies, and consuming more still which feeds the problems caused by growth in the first place.

Consume less. Simple concept, really, but apparently too difficult for Americans to comprehend. So to start, stop thinking about the objects and start thinking about the outcome…

In conversations about sustainability, a huge amount of time is spent considering purchases and consumption. This past weekend at West Coast Green, the “vote with your dollar” mantra wove through nearly every talk. The question is not just about how much we need, but about how we think about what we need at all.

In our consumer experience, there are three things we value tremendously: choice, results and access. Each of these aspects feeds a cycle of spending, unpredictable satisfaction, and eventual disuse. Reducing over-consumption has to go beyond trying to make consumers want less, to giving their desire a new and more appealing target.

CHOICE: We feel a certain sense of power when we get to be selective. We want to be able to scan through hundreds of brands, and select a litany of special functions and features. Or at least we think we do. There are mounting arguments against this idea, suggesting that in fact our daily consumer decisions paralyze us and raise our blood pressure. But physiological effects aside, our purchasing patterns continue to indicate to manufacturers that the more choice a product offers, the more likely we are to buy it. iPod would be a rare example of a product with a singular offering that achieved phenomenal success, but even Apple has begun trying to hook new buyers with multi-functional models.

RESULTS: We have a perpetual tendency to conflate the outcome of an object’s utility with the object itself. A classic example recurs on Worldchanging: Sometimes, we need a hole in our wall, so we buy a drill. But we don’t need the drill, we need the hole. A system that offered the object on demand when we needed results would provide us with the hole but eliminate having a dusty drill sitting in our toolbox for 20 years.

ACCESS: We want our belongings at arm’s reach on a moment’s notice. There’s safety and reassurance in ownership; it’s the reason we buy the drill, and why we might even buy a shiny new model to replace the old one, despite the fact that they bore indistinguishable holes. It’s one thing to recognize that what we desire is an end result, but another entirely to release our longing to be surrounded by all the means that take us to these ends. It’s a deep shift that will lead us to long for an outcome, not an object.

(Read the rest.)

This is the paradox and if you read the rest of the linked post you’ll find out more about how some are “developing systems and infrastructure that can unsnarl” it. It’s a long and difficult process, but not impossible.

Why more is less:

The logic explaining why we are unhappy and uneasy in world of choices seems counter-intuitive, because choice is good, right? Well, not so fast. The argument goes something like this: The more options we have, the more information and effort we have to go into evaluating them, the more likely we are to be dissatisfied with the outcome. So far so good, but why this dissatisfaction?

1) Most people hate making trade-offs and will often avoid making choices until they absolutely have to, so having an abundance of choices reminds us of this dilemma: that life is about making choices, yet we must make them within the vacuum of uncertainty and an unknown future.

2) Most people are bad at dealing with uncertainty, estimating odds and often don’t calculate probabilities properly because we have incomplete information. So trump this up to certain cognitive flaws in our human decision-making apparatus.

3) Our expectations get raised after spending time weighting the tradeoffs and understanding the choices, so we get disappointed when the outcome is not as perfect as we expect. The irony is that the outcome is almost always better, i.e. a better fitting pair of jeans, but our perceptions don’t see this rationally or objectively. As we know from countless studies, not to mention certain wisdoms found in traditions like Buddhism, our satisfaction is often function of when expectations match our perceived reality. In economist language, dissatisfaction occurs when the transaction costs of making the decision exceed the actual benefit.

4) What is called adaptation. In a nutshell, we adapt to our circumstances. This happens within our hedonic system as well, i.e. our internal system that modulates things that feel good and bad. So things that feel good, feel less and less good over time. Just as things that feel bad, like the grating sound of construction work outside my window, feel less bad over time (although that’s debatable.) So the more we have, the more we get used to this stuff, the less special it feels.

(Read the rest.)

Why we thought otherwise in the first place:

As a free market economy–an artificial organism–the US will naturally flow through pathways of least resistance. This means exploiting the resources that are the easiest to utilize (hence our obsession with fossil fuels) and not caring for the consequences (like all the deaths that resulted from poisons released by industry) because the consequences are a problem to be dealt with when it arises. In other words, it’s easier to deal with fewer problems now than to deal with all of the problems that may happen in the future because of x solution.

(What bothers me most about this is that this is the behavior of non-sentient organisms. We can do better than that but we don’t. This is retarded.)

Possible counterpoints:

“Without a large population we will not see the kind of incredible innovation we enjoy today. It’s a simple matter of statistics: with the massive number of people, it is more likely that there will be many more ideas, variety, and creativity flowing throughout our society.”

It’s also more likely that there will be many more idiots running around. In addition, we have achieved a higher standard of living because of all the hard work our forefathers did. When they arrived in this great land they met new challenges, such as “how will we feed ourselves in this new environment” and “how do so few of us kill so many of these savages”. My point is that challenge breeds intelligence, and it was challenge that our founders certainly found. It was not their massive population (unless you consider ~5 million massive). From that number arose the most powerful nation the world has ever seen. In other words, we don’t need a lot of people to do a lot of cool things, especially now that each person is capable of doing a lot more than our ancestors thanks to our more advanced technology.

“With less choice we’ll get higher prices and crappier products. What about competition and even evolution of design?”

You missed the point. With this assumed growth margin (neoclassical economists–the ones running the World Bank–simply assume unlimited everything, even when this is clearly a stupid move) we have reached a level of abundance of choice that it is unsettling. It’s so disturbing that it infringes on our well-being. As the quoted articles cited, depression in the US has increased substantially in the past several years. Why would we be so depressed if most people have money and a marriage? Isn’t that your definition of success and happiness? It better not be. So it isn’t about better products, but better living.

Final thoughts:

We have been too slow to recognize the problems that started with the mistakes made by our simple-minded predecessors. And the problem remains: we’re still simple-minded. Yet we recognize this and are therefore able to change this fact. It’s just that we’re too late. While the near-future is going to be exciting, it’s not going to be the “look at this cool new phone!” kind of exciting but more like the “look at that huge hurricane headed for us!” kind. So in the end we’re going to come out on top because we will have overcame a lot of incredibly difficult challenges–except there’s a good chance we won’t overcome them at all.

If we stopped for just a minute and thought about what we’re doing and re-examine our assumptions (such as “growth is good” and “money and children are happiness incarnate”), we can preempt some disaster and survive for a little longer. Plus… I mean come on, we have the ability to challenge ourselves, to artificially increase our intelligence, and have a damn good time in the process (if you were a real American you’d love a good challenge). Changing your lifestyle to reflect the More is Less philosophy is such a challenge. We’ll get stronger, avoid disaster, and have fun doing it. So what will you choose, simple-minded fool?

A new market! Oh wait, you’re just really slow

Tuesday, June 29th, 2004

I think the gaming industries around the world will finally get a lesson they won’t forget: just because it has a lot of content and great graphics doesn’t mean it’ll sell. I’m not talking about the gameplay factor, but rather the complexity of a game.

When we say we want to get in and out of game without hassle whenever we want, we don’t mean we can press Esc then confirm and then wait a couple minutes for the damn thing to unload its shit so that we can finally use our computer again. What we mean is, Esc and BAM there’s the desktop in all its working glory. It’s easy - if it was an accident, the next time you fire up the game you’ll have the option to return exactly where you left off. If it’s not easy, too bad. Focus on the customer, the people who pay you, the people who you share the world with, and the people includes yourself. If only everyone actually used the products they created. If only.

The industry fucks got the point that some of us like simple fun little games, but those simple fun games weren’t so little. Apparently, no one’s heard the idea of a complete game costing less than 10 bucks brand new. This can happen if you license game engines to cut down development time, consistently follow a narrow focus (eg what specific effect or experience are you trying to show the player), and keep the dev team itself consistent. You’ll slow yourself down if you keep having to explain everything to the n00bs (just ask the guys who made Metal Gear Solid 2).

There is a market for massive games obviously, but they don’t have to stomp over the smaller ones. Yeah, smaller/simpler games exist, but you really have to dig deep into the net to find any good ones. By ’simple’ and ‘fun’ I don’t mean a million Tetris rip-offs or card games. There is such a thing as graphically advanced games using simple concepts for gameplay and take up less than 20mb of hard drive space (heard of .kkrieger?). Of course there’s others, like that one off-road top-down racing arcade game, called something like Super Off-Road Racing… I love that game.

But anyway, it seems this topic is receiving a fair amount of attention lately… ’bout fucking time.